Techniques for Futures Studies
Wider, Deeper, Longer
Vision, Mission, Goals, Strategy
- Scenario 1
- The "Standard Run" from The Limits To
The world society proceeds along its historical path as long as possible without
major policy change. Population and industry output grow until a combination of environmental
and natural resource constraints eliminate the capacity of the capital sector to
sustain investment. Industrial capital begins to depreciate faster than the new investment
can rebuild it. As it falls, food and health services also fall, decreasing life
expectancy and raising the death rate.
- Now the simulated world is developing powerful
technologies for pollution abatement, land yield enhancement, land protection, and
conservation of nonrenewable resources all at once.
- If the population adopts both a desired family
size of two children and a deliberately moderated goal for industrial output per
capita, it can maintain itself at a material standard of living 50% higher than the
1990 world average for almost 50 years.
In this secnario population and industrial output
per person are moderated as in the previous model run, and in addition technologies
are developed to conserve resources, protect agricultural land, increase land yield,
and abate pollution. The resulting society sustains 7.7 billion people at a comfortable
standard of living with high life expectancy and declining pollution until at least
the year 2100.